本文对城市达峰值的规律以及峰值研究方法进行了梳理，研究广州市碳排放峰值时先对广州市碳排放影响因素进行分解分析，随后基于相关规划对广州市的碳排放峰值进行了情景分析。结果表明，经济增长和人口规模是促进广州市碳排放的两个主要因素。经济增长是最重要的影响因素，未来人口增长将不会是碳排放增长的主要影响因素。产业结构、能源强度和碳排放系数都是减缓广州市碳排放的影响因素，其中能源强度的减排贡献度最大。未来广州市能源消费总量将持续增加，在高经济增速的情况下，广州市至2030年仍未达到碳排放峰值；在较低经济增速的情况下，广州市在2020年左右便可实现碳排放峰值。要实现碳排放达峰，必须引导合理的能源消费需求，加大节能力度；加快产业转型，大力发展低碳技术；大力发展天然气和新能源。
关键词：能源消费量；碳排放；峰值目标；广州市

This paper summarizes the regular characteristics of the regional carbon emission peak and related models. Guangzhou’s carbon emissions are decomposed by Logistics Mean Division Index (LMDI) method and analyzed under different scenarios based on the relevant planning. The results show that economic growth and population are two main factors affecting the increase of carbon emission in Guangzhou. Economic growth is the most important factor, but the population will not be a major factor in future anymore. Industrial structure, energy intensity and carbon intensity are the major factors to mitigate carbon emission, in which energy intensity makes the maximum contribution. Energy consumption in Guangzhou will continue to increase in future. In the case of high economic growth, Guangzhou will not reach the peak of carbon emission by 2030; in the case of low economic growth, Guangzhou’s carbon emission will peak in 2020. The carbon emission will probably peak only when certain aspects are improved such as guiding reasonable energy needs, enhancing energy saving intensity, accelerating industrial restructuring, developing low-carbon technologies and more natural gas and new energy utilization.