基于层次分析法的太阳能利用技术综合评价

秦汉时; 赵黛青; 蔡国田; 王  乐

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2016.04.011

新能源进展 >

2016 , Vol. 4 >Issue 4: 334 - 340

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2016.04.011

论文

基于层次分析法的太阳能利用技术综合评价

秦汉时 ,
赵黛青 ,
蔡国田 ,
王乐

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1. 中国科学院广州能源研究所，广州 510640；
2. 中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室，广州 510640；
3. 广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室，广州 510640；
4. 中国科学院大学，北京 100049

秦汉时（1985-），男，博士研究生，主要从事可持续能源技术评价、能源战略研究。

收稿日期: 2015-12-30

修回日期: 2016-06-23

网络出版日期: 2016-08-30

基金资助

中国科学院战略研究与决策支持系统建设专项项目（0707Y41001）

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Economic Evaluation of Solar Technologies Based on Analytic Hierarchy Process

QIN Han-shi ,
ZHAO Dai-qing ,
CAI Guo-tian ,
WANG Le

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1. Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China;
2. Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China;
3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development, Guangzhou 510640, China;
4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received date: 2015-12-30

Revised date: 2016-06-23

Online published: 2016-08-30

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摘要

本文首先利用一个非稳态传热模型对同一环境条件下光伏光热一体化（PV/T）系统、光伏系统（PV）和太阳能热水器的能效进行分析，然后采用层次分析法（AHP）对不同品质终端能源输出的太阳能利用系统的能效统一表征，并以北京、广州和银川为代表的不同城市自然环境及用电价格为条件的三种情景，对三种太阳能利用系统的综合能源利用效率、累计净收益和投资回收期进行分析。结果表明，太阳能利用系统的经济性不仅受到系统能源利用效率和成本的影响，系统所在地的自然环境和电价水平也会引起系统经济性发生变化，因此考虑多种因素的综合评价可以为太阳能技术推广提供更客观和准确的参考。

关键词： 太阳能; 投资回收期; 情景分析; 层次分析法

本文引用格式

秦汉时 , 赵黛青 , 蔡国田 , 王乐 . 基于层次分析法的太阳能利用技术综合评价[J]. 新能源进展, 2016 , 4(4) : 334 -340 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2016.04.011

Abstract

In this paper, an unsteady heat transfer model was established to simulate the energy efficiency of different solar systems such as solar photovoltaic-thermal (PV/T) system, photovoltaic (PV) system and solar water heater system under different climate conditions. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was then used to make a comprehensive analysis about the accumulated net income and payback period of these solar systems on equal terms, by using the results of the heat transfer model under three different electricity price in Beijing, Guangzhou and Yinchuan. Results showed that the economy of solar systems is not only interacted by cost and efficiency, but also by natural environment and electricity price. Under consideration with multi-elements, the evaluation may provide reference for the solar technology application.

Key words： solar energy; payback period; scenario analysis; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

参考文献

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