基于LCA垃圾焚烧发电厂经济性分析的系统动力学模型

房科靖; 熊祖鸿; 鲁  敏; 郭华芳; 李继青

doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2017.05.007

新能源进展 >

2017 , Vol. 5 >Issue 5: 365 - 370

DOI: https://doi.org/10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2017.05.007

论文

基于LCA垃圾焚烧发电厂经济性分析的系统动力学模型

房科靖 ,
熊祖鸿 ,
鲁敏 ,
郭华芳 ,
李继青

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1. 中国科学院广州能源研究，广州 510640；
2. 中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室，广州 510640；
3. 广东省新能源和可再生能源研究开发与应用重点实验室，广州 510640

房科靖（1990-），男，硕士，助理研究员，主要从事废物资源化、能源化利用技术等方面的研究。

收稿日期: 2017-05-31

修回日期: 2017-08-07

网络出版日期: 2017-10-30

基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目（21606228）

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System Dynamics Model for Economic Analysis of Waste Incineration Power Plant Based on LCA

FANG Ke-jing ,
XIONG Zu-hong ,
LU Min ,
GUO Hua-fang ,
LI Ji-qing

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1. Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China;
2. CAS Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy, Guangzhou 510640, China;
3. Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New and Renewable Energy Research and Development, Guangzhou 510640, China

Received date: 2017-05-31

Revised date: 2017-08-07

Online published: 2017-10-30

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摘要

生活垃圾焚烧发电厂的经济性是政府部门和投资企业双方的决策基础和依据，直接影响到双方的利益。目前，垃圾焚烧发电厂经济性的分析预测主要根据项目的历史数据和经验值进行估算和决策，并没有考虑项目整个生命周期内资金的持续投入。本文基于生命周期评价（LCA）分析方法，结合系统动力学理论，构建生活垃圾焚烧发电厂经济性分析的系统动力学模型，并以某地区2000 t/d的焚烧发电厂为实例进行分析，充分考虑了其全生命周期过程的资金投入情况。结果表明：上网电价提高或降低0.1元/kW•h对净利润的影响要大于每吨垃圾处理补贴提高或降低10元对净利润的影响；每吨垃圾处理补贴提高或降低20元相当于上网电价提高或降低0.1元/kW•h。

关键词： 生命周期评价; 系统动力学; 经济性分析; 垃圾焚烧发电厂

本文引用格式

房科靖 , 熊祖鸿 , 鲁敏 , 郭华芳 , 李继青 . 基于LCA垃圾焚烧发电厂经济性分析的系统动力学模型[J]. 新能源进展, 2017 , 5(5) : 365 -370 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2017.05.007

Abstract

The economic performance of municipal solid waste incineration power plants is the basis for the decision-making of government departments and investment enterprises, and directly affects the interests of both sides. At present, the economic analysis and prediction of the waste incineration power plant are mainly based on the historical data and empirical values of the project, and it does not take into account the continuous investment in the whole life cycle of the project. In this work, based on the life cycle assessment (LCA) analysis method and the system dynamics theory, a system dynamics model was built for the economic analysis of the MSW incineration plant. The model taking an incineration power plant with capacity of 2000 t/d as an example, the analysis was carried out by giving full consideration to the capital input in the whole life cycle process. Results showed that: a feed-in tariff increased or decreased by 0.1 RMB/kW•h, the impact on the net profit was greater than that brought by the subsidy fluctuation of 10 RMB for per ton garbage treatment. The subsidy to deal with each ton garbage should be raised to 20 RMB that could be equivalent to the feed-in tariff’s adjusting by 0.1 RMB/kW•h.

Key words： life cycle assessment; system dynamics; economic analysis; waste incineration power plant

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