太阳能热发电经济性分析和产业激励政策建议
收稿日期: 2013-10-29
修回日期: 2013-12-04
网络出版日期: 2013-12-27
基金资助
国家能源局委托课题“太阳能热发电产业政策研究”
Economics Analysis of Solar Thermal Power and Recommendations on Industry-based Incentive Policies
Received date: 2013-10-29
Revised date: 2013-12-04
Online published: 2013-12-27
太阳能热发电作为能够输出稳定优质电力的可再生能源发电形式,已在欧洲、美国等国家和地区快速发展。随着产业链的不断完善、技术水平的逐步提升,太阳能热发电产业有望加速进入规模化发展的新阶段。为促进国内太阳能热发电产业发展,国家能源局于2012年9月委托国家太阳能光热产业技术创新战略联盟会同国家可再生能源中心等单位就太阳能热发电产业发展政策开展研究。通过分析我国太阳能热发电技术现状、产业基础及发展中面临的突出技术和政策问题,发现发电成本高是阻碍太阳能热发电技术在我国产业化推广的最大障碍。鉴于国内尚无商业化太阳能热发电站,同时也不能完全照搬国外的经验模式,研究人员通过采用国际范围内普遍适用的商业化电站投融资模式分析经验,对在中国建设运行一个50 MW槽式太阳能热发电站的经济性和2020年导致成本下降的潜在机遇进行了分析,在假设现行1元/(kW•h) 的光伏上网电价同样适用于太阳能热发电的基础上,提出了扶持太阳能热发电产业发展的短期激励政策建议,同时也对出台商业化太阳能热发电上网电价的可能性以及固定电价形成的方法进行了探讨。
杜凤丽 , 谢宏 . 太阳能热发电经济性分析和产业激励政策建议[J]. 新能源进展, 2013 , 1(3) : 197 -207 . DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.2095-560X.2013.03.001
Concentrated Solar Power (CSP), as one form of renewable power generation to supply stable and dispatchable electricity to the grid, has been developing rapidly in Europe, the United States and other countries and regions. With constant improvement across the industrial chain and technology advancement, the CSP industry is expected to progress into a new stage of large-scale development. In 2012, to promote the development of China's domestic CSP industry, the National Energy Administration (NEA) commissioned the National Solar Thermal Energy Alliance, in collaboration with the National Renewable Energy Center and other organizations to carry out a policy study on the CSP industry development. By analyzing the status quo of China's CSP technology development, manufacturing capacities, as well as various technical and policy issues, the researchers finds out that the high cost of solar thermal power generation is the biggest obstacle that has hampered the commercialization of CSP technologies in China. Given there has been no commercial CSP plant built in China and that international experiences cannot be applied without customization, the researchers, with reference to the internationally recognized project financial modeling methodology, have analyzed the capital costs and operating costs of a prototypical 50 MW parabolic trough power plant with base location in China, as well as the indicative potential of cost reduction by 2020. Assuming that the existing 1 yuan/(kW•h) Feed-in Tariff (FiT) appropriate for solar PV development also applies to the CSP development, various short-term incentive policies for the CSP development have been recommended in a practical manner. In addition, different ways for determining the appropriate level of CSP specific FiTs, as well as the fixed FiT in particular, have been thoroughly discussed in this paper.
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