0 引言
Fig. 1 Quantity of collected and safely treated municipal solid waste, and the number of waste incineration plants in China during 2003-2020 (from China Statistical Yearbook 2004-2021)图1 2003-2020年我国生活垃圾清运量、无害化处理量及焚烧厂数量(数据来源于国家统计局2004-2021年的中国统计年鉴) |
Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of MSW incineration plants in China (from Automatic Monitoring Data Disclosure Platform for Municipal Solid Waste Incineration Power Plants, https://ljgk.envsc.cn/)图2 我国生活垃圾焚烧厂分布图(数据来源于生活垃圾焚烧发电厂自动监测数据公开平台,https://ljgk.envsc.cn/) |
1 垃圾热值的表示
2 生活垃圾热值计算模型种类
2.1 元素含量分析模型
Table 1 Summary of heating value predictive models for MSW based on ultimate analysis表1 基于元素含量分析的生活垃圾热值计算模型 |
模型建立者 | 公式 | 单位 | 样本量 | 数据来源 | 模型评价指标 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | MAPE / % | |||||
KHAN等[35] | ${{Q}_{l}}=145.4\text{C}+620\left( \text{H}-{}^{\text{O}}/{}_{8} \right)+41\text{S}$ | Btu/lb | 86 | 文献 | - | - |
DULONG公式 | ${{Q}_{l}}=81\text{C}+342.5\left( \text{H}-{}^{\text{O}}/{}_{8} \right)+22.5\text{S}-6\left( 9\text{H}+{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)$ | kCal/kg | - | - | - | - |
LIU等[19] | ${{Q}_{l}}=19.96\text{C}+44.3\text{O}-671.82\text{S}-19.92{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+1558.8\text{O}$ | kCal/kg | 40 | 实测 | 0.926 | - |
COOPER等[38] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}\text{=}17050\text{C}+32030\left( \text{H}-{}^{\text{O}}/{}_{8}-{}^{\text{Cl}}/{}_{35.5} \right)\text{+}4591\text{S}-791$ | Btu/lb | 40 | 文献 | 0.948 | - |
CHANNIWALA等[39] | ${{Q}_{h}}=0.3491\text{C}+1.1783\text{H}+0.1005\text{S}-0.1034\text{O}-0.0151\text{N}-0.0211\text{A}$ | MJ/kg | 275 | 文献 | - | 2.58 |
MERAZ等[25] | ${{Q}_{h}}=\left( 1-\frac{{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}{100} \right)\left( -0.3708\text{C}-1.1124\text{H}+0.1391\text{O}-0.3178\text{N}-0.1391\text{S} \right)$ | MJ/kg | 101 | 文献 | - | - |
KATHIRAVALE等[29] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=416.638\text{C}-570.017\text{H}+259.031\text{O}+598.955\text{N}-5829.078$ | kJ/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.625 | - |
THIPKHUNTHO等[30] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=492.5\text{C}-926.0\text{H}+117.6\text{O}+19.3\text{S}$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.891 | 10.8 |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}\text{=}406.4\text{C}-210.5\text{H}+160.4\text{O}+154.8\text{S}-151.2\text{N}-23.8\text{A}$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.905 | 9.3 | |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=134.3\text{C}-1502.1\text{H}-2.7\left[ {{\text{O}}^{2}}/(1-\text{A}/100) \right]+29132.8(1-\text{A}/100)$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.893 | 10.4 | |
孙晓杰等[40] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=337\text{C}+2837\left( \text{H}-0.125\text{O} \right)+93\text{S}+23\text{N}$ | kJ/kg | 15 | 实测 | - | - |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=\left[ 337\text{C}+2837\left( \text{H}-0.125\text{O} \right)+93\text{S}+23\text{N} \right]\left( 1-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)-2420\left( {{C}_{(\text{W})}}+9\text{H} \right)$ | kJ/kg | 15 | 实测 | - | - | |
AKKAYA等[41] | ${{Q}_{h}}=\left( 1-\frac{{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}{100} \right)\left( 0.327\text{C}+1.241\text{H}-0.089\text{O}-0.26\text{N}+0.74\text{S} \right)$ | MJ/kg | 100 | 文献 | 0.983 | - |
SHI等[5] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=0.361\text{C}+1.05\text{H}-0.16\text{N}+1.24\text{S}-0.0658\text{O}-1.46$ | MJ/kg | 193 | 实测+文献 | 0.938 | - |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=0.35\text{C}-1.01\text{H}-0.826\text{O}$ | MJ/kg | 193 | 实测+文献 | 0.936 | 6.73 | |
EBOH等[42] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=0.364\text{C}+0.863\text{H}-0.075\text{O}+0.028\text{N}-1.633\text{S}+0.062\text{Cl}$ | MJ/kg | 86 | 实测 | 0.95 | 5.738 |
HAN等[43] | ${{Q}_{h}}=35\text{C}+120\text{H}-16\text{O}$ | MJ/kg | - | 实测 | 0.93 | 6.67 |
KHURIATI等[34] | ${{Q}_{h}}=5751.94+52.67\text{C}+75.9\text{H}-4.14\text{N}-1044.03\text{S}-97.68\text{O}$ | kCal/kg | 29 | 实测 | 0.99 | - |
${{Q}_{h}}=114.63\text{C}+310.55\text{H}-2762.68$ | kCal/kg | 29 | 实测 | 0.98 | 0.85 | |
${{Q}_{h}}=143.33\text{C}-1737.55$ | kCal/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.94 | 1.35 | |
IBIKUNLE等[44] | ${{Q}_{h}}=1.3849+85.0807\text{C}-28.9675\text{H}-666.125\text{N}+11.6296\text{S}-97.68\text{O}$ | MJ/kg | 62 | 实测 | 0.837 | - |
BOUMANCHAR等[45] | ${{Q}_{h}}=0.484\text{C}-4.1307$ | MJ/kg | 187 | 文献 | - | - |
${{Q}_{h}}=3.1451\text{H}-0.8268$ | MJ/kg | 187 | 文献 | - | - | |
${{Q}_{h}}=0.3805\text{C}+0.77\text{H}-4.0219$ | MJ/kg | 187 | 文献 | - | - | |
$\begin{align} & {{Q}_{h}}=2.775+\text{H}+0.004027\text{C}+0.004027{{\text{C}}^{2}}+\frac{0.05706}{\text{H}-12.97}+\frac{0.02323}{\text{H}-6.661}+ \\ & \frac{0.009398}{\text{H}-5.961}+\frac{12.97-\text{H}}{{{\text{H}}^{3}}-5.922\text{C}} \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 187 | 文献 | - | - | |
AMEN等[46] | ${{Q}_{h}}=4.392+2.514\times {{10}^{5}}{{\text{C}}^{4}}-3.281\times {{10}^{-30}}{{\text{C}}^{22}}$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.824 | - |
$\begin{align} & {{Q}_{h}}=11.8\text{HS}+0.2367\text{NO}+12.91{{\text{N}}^{2}}-0.3428- \\ & 0.2871\text{N}{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-0.7196\text{S}{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-66.04\text{NS} \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.644 | - | |
$\begin{align} & {{Q}_{h}}=5.734+41.96\text{S}+0.9586\text{CN}+0.4347\text{O}{{\text{N}}^{2}}- \\ & 22.42\text{N}-52.33\text{NS}-0.01236\text{CN}{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.919 | - | |
MATEUS等[37] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=0.254811\text{C}+1.64176\text{H}$ | MJ/kg | 458 | 实测 | 0.992 | 3.47 |
$\begin{align} & {{{{Q}'}}_{(\text{h})}}=0.008854{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+0.492754\text{C}+ \\ & 0.614578\text{H}-0.057788\text{O}-5.047684 \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 458 | 实测 | 0.996 | 1.55 | |
$\begin{align} & {{{{Q}'}}_{(\text{l})}}=0.008859{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+0.492715\text{C}+ \\ & 0.408739\text{H}-0.057778\text{O}-5.047003 \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 458 | 实测 | 0.991 | 1.65 | |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}=0.517644\text{C}+0.514339\text{H}-8.215895$ | MJ/kg | 458 | 实测 | 0.989 | 1.81 |
备注:${{Q}_{l}}$为低位热值;${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}$为干基低位热值;${{Q}_{\operatorname{h}}}$为高位热值;$Q_{(\operatorname{h})}^{'}$为干基高位热值;C为碳含量,%;H为氢含量,%;O为氧含量,%;S为硫含量,%;Cl为氯含量,%;A为灰分,%;R2为决定系数;MAPE为平均绝对百分比误差。 |
2.2 工业特性分析模型
Table 2 Summary of heating value predictive models for MSW based on proximate analysis表2 基于工业特性分析的生活垃圾热值计算模型 |
模型建立者 | 公式 | 单位 | 数据量 | 数据来源 | 模型评价指标 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | MAPE / % | |||||
LIU等[19] | ${{Q}_{l}}=44.75\text{V}-5.85{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+21.1$ | kCal/kg | - | - | - | - |
KATHIRAVALE等[29] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=356.248\text{V}-6998.497$ | kJ/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.682 | - |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=356.047\text{V}-118.035\text{FC}-5600.613$ | kJ/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.691 | - | |
THIPKHUNTHOD等[30] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=255.75\text{V}+283.88\text{FC}-2386.38$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.899 | 9.1 |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{ah})}}=278.07\left( \text{V}+\text{FC} \right)-50.44{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-2875.52$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.901 | 8.9 | |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{h})}}=219.98+327.44\text{FC}-68.39{{C}_{(\text{W})}}$ | kJ/kg | 219 | 实测 | 0.881 | 11.4 | |
IBIKUNLE等[44] | ${{Q}_{h}}=0.151721\text{V}+0.116768\text{FC}-0.34728{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-7.19477$ | MJ/kg | 62 | 实测 | 0.705 | - |
AMEN等[46] | ${{Q}_{h}}=0.744767+0.240652\text{V}+\frac{5.214473}{{{\text{V}}^{2}}}$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.818 4 | - |
${{Q}_{h}}=0.184563\text{V}+3.570487$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.818 4 | - |
备注:${{{Q}'}_{(\text{ah})}}$为风干基高位热值;FC为固定碳含量,%;V为挥发分,%。 |
2.3 物理组成分析模型
Table 3 Summary of heating value predictive models for MSW based on physical composition analysis表3 基于物理成分分析的生活垃圾热值计算模型 |
模型建立者 | 公式 | 单位 | 数据量 | 数据 来源 | 模型评价指标 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R2 | MAPE / % | |||||
KHAN等[35] | ${{Q}_{l}}=23\left( \text{Fo}+3.6\text{Pa} \right)+160\text{Pl}$ | Btu/lb | 86 | 文献 | 0.971 | - |
LIU等[19] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}=28.16\text{Pl}+7.90\text{Pa}+4.87\text{Ga}-37.28{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+2229.91$ | kCal/kg | 34 | 实测 | 0.967 | - |
ABU-QUDAIS等[51] | ${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=267.0\left( {\text{Pl}}/{\text{Pa}}\; \right)+2285.7$ | kCal/kg | 15 | 实测 | 0.940 | - |
TIAN等[52] | $\begin{align} & {{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=\left[ 458\text{Pl}+141.1\left( \text{Te}+\text{Fo}+\text{Pa}+\text{Yr} \right)+8.2\text{A} \right]\times \left( 100-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)/100- \\ & 25\left( {{C}_{(\text{W})}}+9\text{H} \right) \\ \end{align}$ | kJ/kg | - | 实测 | - | - |
董长青等[53] | ${{Q}_{l}}=237.79\text{Pl}+95.44\text{Pa}+53.37\text{Te}+18.77\text{Wo}+4.33\text{Fo}+1393.37$ | kJ/kg | 108 | 实测 | - | - |
KATHIRAVALE等[29] | ${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=112.157\text{Ga}+183.386\text{Pa}+288.737\text{Pl}+5064.701$ | kJ/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.779 | - |
${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=112.815\text{Ga}+184.366\operatorname{Pa}+298.343\text{Pl}-1.920{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+5130.380$ | kJ/kg | 30 | 实测 | 0.779 | - | |
CHANG等[23] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}=\left( 35.19\text{Pa}+71.17\text{Pl}+36.24\text{Te}+48.06\text{Wo}+42.21\text{Fo}+44\text{Mi} \right)\frac{\left( 100-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)}{{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}-6{{C}_{(\text{W})}}$ | kCal/kg | 180 | 实测 | 0.983 | 5.56 |
${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}=\left( 39.04\text{Pa}+101.47\text{Pl}+38.47\text{Fo} \right)\frac{100-{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}{{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}-6{{C}_{(\text{W})}}$ | kCal/kg | 180 | 实测 | 0.974 | 10.7 | |
LIN等[33] | ${{{Q}'}_{(\text{l})}}=\left( \begin{align} & 47.3\text{Pa}+58.6\text{Pl}+38.6\text{Te}+32.4\text{Wo}+ \\ & 45.2\text{Fo}+62.3\text{Ru}+50.1\text{Mi} \\ \end{align} \right)\frac{100-{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}{{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}-6{{C}_{(\text{W})}}$ | kCal/kg | 497 | 实测 | 0.987 | 11.6 |
${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=22.1\text{Pa}+28.1\text{Pl}+24.6\text{Te}+12.7\text{Wo}+6.0\text{Fo}+57.4\text{Ru}+17.2\text{Mi}$ | kCal/kg | 497 | 实测 | 0.954 | 17.7 | |
KHURIATI等[34] | ${{Q}_{l}}=2997-4.6\text{Pa}+7\text{Pl}+11\text{Ru}-27\text{Te}+20\text{Wo}-28\text{Yr}-26\text{Fo}-6\text{Mi}$ | kCal/kg | 24 | 实测 | 0.491 | - |
${{Q}_{l}}=141+23\text{Pa}+8\text{Pl}+40\text{Ru}+49\text{Wo}+2.5\text{Fo}+22\text{Mi}$ | kCal/kg | 24 | 实测 | 0.491 | - | |
OZVEREN [54] | ${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=20\text{Fo}+83\text{Pl}+187\text{Pa}+105\text{Wo}+170\text{Te}$ | kJ/kg | 89 | 实测 | 0.906 | 15 |
NWANKWO等[32] | ${{Q}_{h}}=17712.04\text{W}{{\text{o}}^{-0.0094}}\text{F}{{\text{o}}^{-0.0063}}\text{L}{{\text{e}}^{0.041}}\text{M}{{\text{i}}^{-0.019}}\text{P}{{\text{a}}^{-0.044}}\text{P}{{\text{l}}^{0.084}}\text{T}{{\text{e}}^{0.025}}$ | kJ/kg | 10 | 实测 | 0.999 | - |
$\begin{align} & {{Q}_{h}}=22402-25.677\text{Fo}+122.132\text{Le}-56.697\text{Mi}-104.471\text{Pa}+ \\ & 49.728\text{Pl}+4.442\text{Te}-64.129{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \\ \end{align}$ | kJ/kg | 10 | 实测 | 0.994 | - | |
苏肇基等[55] | ${{Q}_{l}}=2494.019-22.833{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-5.223\text{Ga}-0.926\text{Pa}+2.129\text{Pl}$ | kCal/kg | 48 | - | - | 15.78 |
DRUDI等[56] | $\begin{align} & {{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=\left( 13.69\text{Or}+20.94\text{Sa}+37.99\text{Pl}+10.48\text{Pa}+19.27\text{Te} \right)\left( 1-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)- \\ & \left( 2.442-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right) \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 60 | 实测 | 0.993 | 6.48 |
IBIKUNLE等[44] | ${{Q}_{h}}=0.171002+0.010962\text{Ga}+0.008254\text{Ce}+0.010242\text{Po}$ | MJ/kg | 62 | 实测 | 0.977 | - |
DRUDI等[36] | $\begin{align} & {{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=\left( 16.55\text{Or}+20.42\text{Sa}+36.17\text{Pl}+9.06\text{Pa}+22.81\text{Te} \right)\left( 1-{{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right)- \\ & \left[ 2.442\left( 9\text{H}+{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-9\text{H}\times {{C}_{(\text{W})}} \right) \right] \\ \end{align}$ | MJ/kg | 36 | 实测 | 0.996 | 5.09 |
李剑颖[57] | $\begin{align} & {{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=5529.832-59.618\text{Fo}+87.144\text{Mi}+78.874\text{Pl}- \\ & 118.693{{C}_{(\text{W})}}+541.542\text{Ot}+38.957\text{Br} \\ \end{align}$ | kJ/kg | 108 | 实测 | 0.972 | - |
吕永[22] | ${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}=\frac{100-{{C}_{(\text{W})}}}{100}\left( 145.6\text{Fo}+160.8\text{Pa}+269.9\text{Pl}+195.5\text{Te} \right)-10.3{{C}_{(\text{W})}}-1210$ | kJ/kg | 100 | 实测 | - | - |
WANG等[20] | ${{Q}_{l}}=-68.06\text{Fo}+91.77\text{Pa}+52.65\text{Pl}+30.73\text{Te}+34.91\text{Wo}+7342.79$ | kJ/kg | 151 | 文献 | - | 22.18 |
${{Q}_{l}}=-74.42\text{Fo}+83.20\text{Pa}+67.90\text{Pl}+7669.08$ | kJ/kg | 151 | 文献 | - | 21.94 |
备注:${{Q}_{(\operatorname{l})}}$为湿基低位热值;Pl为塑料,%;L为落叶,%;Le为皮革,%;Pa为纸,%;Wo为木竹,%;Yr为庭院垃圾,%;Gr为草,%;Ga为普通垃圾,%;Fo为厨余,%;Te为纺织物,%;Mi为杂项,%;Ru为橡胶,%;Or为有机垃圾,%;Sa为卫生垃圾,%;Ce为纤维素,%;Po为聚乙烯,%;Ot为其他垃圾,%;Br为砖块,%。 |
2.4 其他模型
3 模型建立方法
3.1 多元线性回归分析
3.2 人工神经网络
Fig. 3 Structure of artificial neural network图3 人工神经网络结构示意图 |
Table 4 Summary of heating value predictive models for MSW built by using artificial neural network表4 生活垃圾热值人工神经网络模型 |
模型建立者 | 参数 | 热值 | 单位 | 人工神经网络结构* | 样本量 | 数据来源 | 模型精度R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DONG等[73] | 塑料、纸、纺织物、草、厨余 | LHV | kJ/kg | 9∶(3,5,7,9)∶1 | 105 | 实测 | - |
SHU等[47] | C、H、N、O、S、Cl | LHV | kCal/kg | 6∶15∶1 | 220 | 实测 | 0.93 |
水分、塑料、纸、厨余、有机垃圾、纺织物、皮革、可燃物、不可燃物 | LHV | kCal/kg | 10∶15∶1 | 220 | 实测 | 0.87 | |
水分、挥发分、灰分 | LHV | kCal/kg | 3∶15∶1 | 220 | 实测 | 0.83 | |
OGWUELEKA等[74] | 橡塑、纸、纺织物、厨余、玻璃 | LHV | kJ/kg | 5∶10∶1 | 60 | 实测 | 0.981 |
AKKAYA等[41] | C、H、O、N、S、灰分、水分 | HHV | MJ/kg | 7∶5∶1 | 100 | 文献 | 0.991 |
KHURIATI等[75] | 塑料、纸、橡胶、纺织物、木竹、庭院垃圾、厨余、可燃物 | LHV | kCal/kg | 8∶11∶1 | 24 | 实测 | 0.988 1 |
8∶23∶1 | 0.992 7 | ||||||
8∶35∶1 | 0.992 9 | ||||||
OZVEREN [54] | 塑料、纸、纺织物、木竹、厨余、水分 | LHV | kJ/kg | 6∶16∶4∶1 | 89 | 实测 | 0.974 7 |
丁兰等[76] | 低密度聚乙烯、高密度聚乙烯、聚丙烯、聚苯乙烯、涤纶树脂、聚氯乙烯、聚碳酸酯、其他塑料、纸、橡胶、纺织物、木竹、皮革、水分、干基氢含量 | LHV | kJ/kg | - | 78 | 实测 | 0.941 7 |
WANG等[20] | 厨余、纸、塑料、纺织物、木竹 | LHV | kJ/kg | 5∶3 ~ 35∶1 | 151 | 文献 | - |
厨余、纸、塑料 | LHV | kJ/kg | 3∶3 ~ 35∶1 | 151 | 文献 | - | |
BIRGEN等[77] | 温度、降水、风力、一周中第几天、一年中第几周 | LHV | MJ/kg | A/N | 1 024 | 实测 | - |
注:*人工神经网络的结构为输入层变量数∶隐藏层中的节点个数∶输出层变量个数(例如6∶15∶1)。 |