ZHU Zhifang, WANG Wenxiu, LIN Zihan, DONG Hong, GAO Yanna, HU Liujun, CAI Guotian, LU Juntong, HAO Weitao
"Safety and efficiency", as well as "clean and low-carbon" are the fundamental requirements and key targets in building a new-generation power system. The construction of new-generation power systems in fossil and renewable energy "double energy-deficient" mega cities faces greater challenges. It is crucial to accurately promote the construction of new-generation power systems by constructing an indicator system and quantitatively detecting the current situation, future trends, and shortcomings of power-side construction. By taking Guangzhou, a city with characteristics of severe energy deficiency and extremely heavy power load, as an example, this study has constructed a power-side indicator system for the new-generation power systems and set up six potential power supply scenarios, quantitatively analyzed the evolutionary trends of characteristics and explored the breakthrough points for building the new-generation power systems in energy deficient cities. The results indicate that the self-sufficiency rates of power supply capacity have been increasing annually. It can reach 80% under the A5 scenario, and 68% under other scenarios by 2030. However, the self-sufficiency rates of power supply quantity decreased instead of increasing during the 15th Five-Year Plan period. In 2030, the A5 scenario can reach a maximum of 50%, and the A1 scenario can reach a minimum of only 36%, with a large gap in electricity, and the security risks of electricity supply are still elusive. The A3 scenario has the cleanest and lowest carbon, the A5 scenario is the safest, and the A4 scenario can balance between security and low carbon at different stages. Therefore, the government can choose the most suitable development scenario according to its goals and focus. The characteristic of "low cleanliness" is the biggest shortcoming for Guangzhou, and Guangzhou cannot solve this problem by developing a high proportion of local renewable energy. Improving the renewable energy ratio of the purchased electricity is the optimal and only breakthrough. By 2030, when the proportions of renewable energy in the purchased electricity increase to about 35%, 40% and 45%, Guangzhou may realize the construction of the supply side of the new-generation power systems at slow speed, medium speed, and fast speed, respectively. This study can provide a preliminary research basis for building a new-generation power system index system and explore an optimal combination model for constructing the supply side of a new-generation power system for energy-deficient cities.