0 引言
1 研究方法
1.1 氢能替代工艺
Fig. 1 Steelmaking process roadmap for blast furnace method图1 高炉法炼钢工艺路线图 |
Fig. 2 Hydrogen metallurgy process roadmap图2 氢冶金法工艺路线图 |
1.2 广东省制氢结构及能力分析
Fig. 3 Product energy flow diagram framework-hydrogen route overview图3 产品能流图框架-制氢路线概览 |
Fig. 5 Hydrogen production structure in Guangdong Province in 2020 (a) and 2035 (b)图5 广东省2020年(a)和2035年(b)制氢结构 |
1.3 广东省制氢成本分析
Fig. 6 Hydrogen production-cost prediction model图6 制氢产量-成本预测模型 |
Fig. 7 Forecast of hydrogen production cost in Guangdong Province (2020-2035)图7 广东省综合制氢成本预测(2020—2035年) |
1.4 广东省粗钢产量预测
Fig. 8 Trend of crude steel production per unit of GDP in Guangdong Province (data cited from reference [25])图8 广东省单位GDP粗钢产量变化趋势(数据引自文献β[25]) |
Fig. 9 Trend of crude steel production and GDP in Guangdong Province (data cited from reference [25])图9 广东省粗钢产量与GDP变化趋势(数据引自文献β[25]) |
1.5 广东省高炉炼钢氢冶金技术替代分析的情景参数设置
Fig. 10 Hydrogen consumption per ton of steel by hydrometallurgy considering technological progress图10 考虑技术进步时氢冶金法吨钢耗氢量 |
Fig. 11 Carbon emissions of hydrogen produced in Guangdong Province, 2020-2035图11 2020—2035年广东省制氢的碳排放量 |
Fig. 12 Replacement rate of hydrogen metallurgy process in steelmaking in Guangdong Province图12 氢冶金工艺在广东省炼钢中的替代率 |
2 结果与讨论
2.1 粗钢生产能源消费和吨钢能耗分析
Fig. 13 Trends in steelmaking energy consumption in Guangdong Province under different scenarios图13 不同情景下广东省粗钢生产能源消费变化趋势 |
Fig. 14 Trends in energy consumption per ton of steel in Guangdong Province under different scenarios图14 不同情景下广东省吨钢能耗变化趋势 |
2.2 粗钢生产碳排放和吨钢碳排放分析
Fig. 15 Trends in carbon emissions from steelmaking in Guangdong Province under different scenarios图15 不同情景下广东省炼钢碳排放变化趋势 |
Fig. 16 Trends of carbon emission per ton of steel in Guangdong Province under different scenarios图16 不同情景下广东省吨钢碳排放变化趋势 |
2.3 氢冶金技术替代传统粗钢生产工艺的吨钢经济性分析
Fig. 17 Comparison of blast furnace and hydrogen metallurgy steelmaking cost trends per ton of steel图17 高炉法与氢冶金法炼钢吨钢成本趋势比较 |
Fig. 18 Trends in cost per ton of steel in Guangdong Province under different scenarios图18 不同情景下广东省吨钢成本变化趋势 |
2.4 广东省钢铁行业炼钢能量流动分析
Fig. 19 Energy flow diagram of crude steelmaking products in Guangdong steel industry in 2035 under the baseline scenario (coke and natural gas used as “feedstock” are also accounted for as “energy” consumption, and the same applies to hydrogen)图19 基准情景下,2035年广东省钢铁行业粗钢炼制产品能流图(将作为“原料”使用的焦炭、天然气也记作“能源”消耗,同样也适用于氢) |
Fig. 20 Energy flow diagram of crude steelmaking products in Guangdong Province in 2035 under the deep substitution scenario图20 深度替代情景下,2035年广东省钢铁行业粗钢炼制产品能流图 |